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Retail turnover in 2020 may fall for the first time in 20 years
"At the end of the year, according to the baseline forecast, the turnover of Russian retail may decrease by 0.7%, to 33.3 trillion rubles. The pessimistic estimate suggests a fall by 2%, to 32.9 trillion rubles year-on-year. As the CEO of Infoline-Analytics explains "Mikhail Burmistrov, the fall in retail trade in annual terms will occur for the first time since at least 2000," the newspaper notes. In absolute terms, this means losses of up to 670 billion rubles.
"Sellers of clothing and footwear, jewelry and cars may suffer the most. At the same time, analysts say, the crisis was caused by" artificial restrictions ", including on movement, because the market recovery will begin next year", - indicate authors of the article.
Food trade, according to Infoline estimates, will show slight growth. The baseline forecast assumes an increase in turnover by 2.4%, to 16.5 trillion rubles, unfavorable - by 1.2%, to 16.3 trillion rubles. Moreover, the second scenario assumes that the growth rates will be the lowest in the last nine years. “As follows from Infoline data, during 2011-2019, turnover increased in the range of 2.2% - 11.15% annually. X5 Retail Group (Pyaterochka, Perekrestok, Karusel) also expects that the market growth will be lower than the last few years, but the dynamics will remain at least at the level of the target inflation of the Central Bank. On Friday, the figure was 4%, "the newspaper notes.
The non-food trade turnover, according to the baseline forecast of Infoline, this year will decrease by 3.7%, to 16.8 trillion rubles. On a pessimistic estimate, it will fall by 5% to RUB 16.6 trillion YoY. The crisis affected the fashion market, jewelry industry and car dealers the most, Burmistrov points out. Thus, Vladimir Bespalov from VTB Capital expects a fall in the car market by 18% in units by the end of the year: with this development of events, sales in money will be in a small minus or at the level of last year. According to Eduard Utkin, the general director of the Guild of Russian Jewelers, the turnover of jewelry stores may fall by 55%, including due to a drop in purchasing power.
Infoline expects that in 2021, according to a pessimistic forecast, retail turnover will show an increase of 4.1%, to 34.3 trillion rubles, on a baseline - by 8.1%, to 36 trillion rubles on an annual basis.