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New details on the development strategy of the automotive industry
By 2025 car production can grow 1.9 times to 2.1 million cars, and the market 1.7 times to 2.2 million cars. It comes from Car industry strategy project until 2025 published on the Facebook page of the Department of the Ministry of Economic Development. The document was prepared also by the Ministry of Industry, НАМИ and McKinsey & Company. It will be discussed at the St. Petersburg forum, the newspaper “Vedomosti” wrote. "We expect that the strategy will be ... approved in the second quarter," said Industry and Trade Minister Mr. Denis Manturov.
The annual state support of the industry is proposed to be kept at the level of 2016 - 65 billion rubles until 2025. At the same time, subsidies for demand may stop and by 2020 state’s support will focus on projects related to electric vehicles, unmanned vehicles, infrastructure development necessary for their operation.
In Russia, thanks to the state support, there are capacities for the production of 3.2 million vehicles a year. But in 2013-2016 the market was halved as a result car manufacturers were loaded by 40% on average. Given the projected market capacity, the developers of the strategy believe that companies need to develop exports. According to authors forecast, supply of cars abroad can grow 3.6 times to more than 250 thousand pieces by 2025.
To improve the economy of car plants and stimulate the production of auto components, it is necessary to achieve "concentration of production" and reduce the number of used automobile platforms, the developers believe. The project says, that in the segment of passenger cars there are almost 30 platforms, but it needs to be only 6-8 as in developed countries. For the break-even production on one "global" platform (in the mass segment) it is necessary to produce 100-150 thousand cars per year, and on the "domestic" platform should be 370-500 thousand cars because of higher costs, according to developers. However, employees of auto concerns believe that profitability at much lower levels can be achieved, including through the optimization of production and changes in cars prices. Everything depends on the specific production.
In the opinion of the project developers, the risks that may hamper the implementation of the strategy are lack of competencies and money for the development of R & D, exports, production of auto components and so on. There is also a risk of production curtailment. So in 2015, for example, the company General Motors so did. To minimize this risk developers propose signing new versions of agreements on industrial assembly with key players (the action of the current ones will be completed by 2020). According to Mr. Manturov, in the Ministry of Industry and Trade they believes that it is expediently to switch to special investment contracts.
A sourse: AUTOSTAT