News of company


		10 January 2018
		

Financial forecast for 2018

Финансовый прогноз на 2018 год International relations and global markets often affect the figures understandable to the average citizen, such as the ruble exchange rate to foreign currencies and the level of inflation in the country. "Lenta.ru" leads a consensus forecast, compiled on the basis of expert analytics on the most popular indicators: the ruble exchange rate, the inflation rate, the Central Bank's key rate, oil and the bitcoin rate.
Energy is still Russia's main commodity: they account for more than a third of Russian exports. Oil quotes, to which, in turn, are tied and gas, play a determining but not dominant role in influencing the indicators of the national economy, including the exchange rate of the national currency.
"In 2018, quotes Brent will not be able to gain a foothold above the level of $ 60 per barrel. The main obstacle to the growth of oil is the oil shale industry in the US, whose potential, according to our estimates, is still undervalued by the markets. We expect that during the next year, US oil producers will continue to actively increase their production, which will exert pressure on the prices of the oil asset even under the conditions of the OPEC + deal, "says Binbank analyst Anton Pokatovich, who predicts that by the end of 2018 the cost of a barrel of Brent will drop to $ 57 per barrel.
The most optimistic about the world oil prices are seen in the company "Opening Broker". Head of the department of market analysis Konstantin Bushuev admits that by the end of the year prices will rise to $ 72 per barrel. In his opinion, this can be facilitated by the growth in demand for oil, which will not be hindered even by the intention of the United States in the next five years to begin selling off its stocks in the amount of 650 million barrels.
The key rate of the Central Bank determines the availability of money in the economy: the higher the percentage, the more difficult it is for commercial banks to obtain a loan from the regulator, and accordingly - to send this money for their own needs. The key rate directly affects the rates on deposits and loans in commercial banks. At the last meeting, the Central Bank suddenly dropped the rate to 7.75 percent per annum, which for many market participants and analysts was a surprise. In its release, the Bank of Russia designated the transition from moderately tight monetary policy to simply moderate. This happened for the first time since the introduction of sanctions and a sharp fall in oil prices in 2014.
Analysts interviewed by Lentoy.ru believe that in 2018 the regulator will continue to reduce the rate, however, as far as the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina goes, the forecasts vary. For example, the deputy head of the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank Maxim Petronevich believes that the level of rate reduction will directly depend on the growth of prices. "With the acceleration of inflation and the weakening of the ruble in 2018, the regulator will take a pause with a high probability and fix the rate for a long time," Petronevich is convinced. According to his estimate, at the end of the year the rate will be fixed in the range from 6.5 to 7 percent per annum.
John Hardy, the chief currency strategist of the Danish Saxo Bank, expects the most radical decline from the Central Bank: "In 2018, the Central Bank should feel comfortable, continuing to slowly reduce the refinancing rate to 6 percent and even lower - a step that could stimulate the Russian economy." Hardy believes that the Russian regulator by the end of the year will lower the rate to 5.75 percent per annum. The analyst of the Finam Group, Sergey Drozdov, disagrees with him: he is convinced that a sharp decrease in the rate in December will force the regulator to wait with a further decline. At the end of 2018, he expects a rate of 7 percent per annum.
Experts note that in 2017 several positive factors came together: a record grain harvest, an increase in oil prices, and the strengthening of the Russian currency. All this they call more by chance than by systemic change. "The structure of the Russian economy contributes to the high probability of shocks that accelerate inflation (changes in the external environment, natural disasters, rising taxes and tariffs). Part of the short-term inflation factors will stop holding it back in 2018, "said Dmitry Kulikov, an expert with the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) research and forecasting group. In his opinion, by the end of 2018, inflation will accelerate to 4.5-4.6 percent.
A similar assessment is provided by the managing director of BCS Ultima Oleg Safonov: "The prospects for a repetition of such a situation look uncertain, and if in the spring of 2018 the ruble remains at current levels or weaken, the result may be a significant acceleration in the growth of prices for fresh vegetables and fruits, which, in its turn, can lead to a substantial acceleration of inflation. " His estimate for the end of the year is 4-4.5 percent.
Analysts expect Gazprombank to have the lowest level of inflation among those interviewed by "Lentoy.ru" - 3.2-3.8 percent at the end of 2018. "Restraining price growth, despite some weakening of the ruble, will be low growth rates of the economy. The greatest potential for accelerating inflation continues to be in the area of ​​services to the population, the prices for which are largely determined by the dynamics of wages, "believes Maxim Petronevich.
The largest inflation in 2018 is forecasted by economist Alexander Isakov of VTB Capital: "The acceleration of inflation is due to the exhaustion of time factors, the effect of a low base, as well as increasing inflationary pressure from consumer demand." According to Isakov, inflation in 2018 will accelerate to 5.1 percent.
In 2018, the main factor supporting the exchange rate of the Russian currency will be an agreement to reduce OPEC + oil production, which will last until the end of the year. The new ruble rule will also support the ruble exchange rate, according to which all additional oil and gas revenues will be sent to reserves (all oil and gas revenues at the price of Urals oil above $ 40 per barrel).
A negative factor for the Russian currency may be the Finance Ministry's plan to purchase a record amount of foreign currency in 2018, which is also included in the new budget rule. According to some experts, this will create serious pressure on the Russian currency. A similar opinion, for example, is taken by Maxim Petronevich from Gazprombank - he believes that by the end of 2018 the dollar exchange rate will be 62-65 rubles
Belief in the positive factors that will strengthen the national currency, show in the company "Hiding the Broker": against the backdrop of the growth of oil quotations there are allowed to strengthen the Russian currency to 53 rubles per dollar. The sharp strengthening of the dollar against the euro, or vice versa, analysts do not expect, so the current difference in the course as a whole will continue.
The boom of crypto-currency became the main theme of the last year. National states tried to work out their own legislative base for a new mainstream. Next came Japan, where bitcoin was recognized as a means of payment, and the United States, which in fact institutionalized the most popular crypto currency as a financial instrument. However, most analysts interviewed by Lentoy.ru analysts did not dare to give a long-term forecast for the bitcoin rate: too little data for analysis and too many risk factors affecting the rate.
Those who did risk, note that by the end of the year we can expect diametrically opposite values: from bitcoin to 50 thousand dollars until the disappearance of this crypto currency. For example, Anna Bodrova of Alpari compares such forecasts with "finger-to-the-sky": "If the forecasting with conventional market assets makes sense due to the availability of historical data and completely earth details, then in the situation with bitcoin, the forecast will look like a finger hit in sky. Let the target of growth of bitcoin in 2018 be 30 thousand dollars. " She believes that bitcoin is an obvious bubble in the market, and investors' attention in 2018 will focus on other crypto-currencies.
Support for the course of bitcoin in 2018 may have a lot of free money, says deputy general director of IC Finam Yaroslav Kabakov. "There is free money in the markets - since early 2017, the Dow Jones index has grown by 24 percent. The reduction of taxes on the secured part of the population by Donald Trump will result in the released funds to the stock exchanges. Undoubtedly, trying to show profitability above the market average, some managers of investment portfolios will try to play on the bitcoin course - this is one of the important reserves for the future recovery, "the analyst said, predicting that by the end of 2018 bitcoin will cost 18,850 dollars.
Representative of Gazprombank Maxim Petronevich believes that the rate of the main crypto currency will be from 2 thousand to 50 thousand dollars. For the minimum threshold, he takes the cost of operating and capital costs (electricity costs plus equipment), which in 2018 will be at the level of two thousand dollars.

Source: Rambler / Finance


Back to the list